As Queen Mkungbir braided a customer’s hair in her salon in Kubwa, Abuja, political talk drifted through the room until someone mentioned the upcoming 2027 presidential elections.
“If Tinubu keeps Shettima, many Christians will feel invisible. People still remember what the exclusion of Christians in (Tinubu’s) politics has cost us,” the person said, referring to perceived government failure to tackle security problems affecting Christian communities across central Nigeria.
Mkungbir has not been politically active. But from recent conversations in church, markets, and her salon about how a continued all-Muslim presidency might affect Christians in the country, she says she has decided to vote in the coming election.
For many Nigerians, the question is not whether President Tinubu will seek reelection in 2027, but whether he will retain Vice President Kashim Shettima and extend the controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket that reshaped Nigeria’s politics in 2023.
That year, President Tinubu chose Shettima, a fellow Muslim, as his vice, breaking a 24-year-old tradition where parties and major candidates balanced Muslim and Christian identities on presidential tickets.
Tinubu’s choice to break the unstated rule was for political expediency. As a Muslim from the south, his camp calculated that choosing a Christian running mate could weaken his appeal among conservative voters in the Muslim-majority north, where religion strongly influences electoral behaviour.
In a 2025 study titled “Religious Affiliation and Voting Behaviour among Nigerian Electorates in Nigeria,” researchers at the Gombe State University found that 55.2% of northern Muslims consider a candidate’s religious affiliation when deciding who to vote for, compared to 19% of Christians.
But Tinubu also argued that his choice of Shettima was based on his “proven” competence demonstrated when he (Shettima) was governor of Borno State.
Still, the move triggered protests from Christian groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria [CAN] and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria [PFN], both arguing that the decision undermined Nigeria’s religious balancing and reeked of marginalisation.
The election results suggested that concerns over the same-faith ticket did not prevent Tinubu from winning.
According to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission, Tinubu earned 37% of the total votes cast to win the election, with much of his support coming from the north and the southwest where he is from. His closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, received 29% of votes cast, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party received 25% of the votes.
As Nigerians prepare for the 2027 election, they are wondering if Tinubu would retain Shettima or replace him with a Christian. His decision will carry implications far beyond party strategy, testing whether Nigeria’s fragile tradition of religious balancing still shapes electoral politics.
Why it matters in 2027
For many voters across faiths, the deeper question may be simpler: Who will deliver the greater good?
Tinubu’s government has grown increasingly unpopular among Muslims and Christians alike due to worsening economic and security conditions.
“Muslim-Muslim ticket gave Tinubu power, yet the North has not benefited from his presidency,” says Sheik Musa Hassan Katsina, a prominent Islamic scholar. “Nigerians got hardship in return through new tax laws. Withdraw the tax laws or face us at the polls,” he threatened.
In January 2026, following the omission of Shettima’s photo from a banner displayed at a major rally of the ruling APC in Shettima’s home state of Borno, Shettima’s supporters believed it signaled Tinubu’s reluctance to keep him. The omission fuelled further speculation despite APC denials.
The president’s intentions may become clearer when he announces his running mate later in 2026.
If he retains Shettima, his administration may signal confidence that religious identity no longer determines electoral outcomes. Supporters would call it loyalty to a trusted deputy. But critics would see it as proof that Christian concerns carry little political weight.
But if he picks a Christian, the move could calm Christian fears and revive Nigeria’s unwritten rule of religious balance. It might also be seen internationally as an effort to address inclusion concerns.
“A repeat of the Muslim-Muslim ticket could see the APC lose Middle Belt states, where northern Christians command about 90% of the votes,” says the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum.
However, some analysts believe that picking a Christian could provoke anger among northern allies who may view Shettima’s removal as betrayal. They argue that retaining Shettima could reassure key APC stakeholders in the northeast, where Shettima holds influence. Replacing him could risk alienating part of the coalition that secured Tinubu’s victory in 2023.
Back in Abuja, Queen Mkungbir finishes her customer’s hair and sweeps the salon floor. The political debate continues around her. But her own conclusion has already formed.
“I just want to feel like the country sees us Christians as integral parts of the political system,” she says. “Deciding who we want to rule us, and having representatives up there.”